Home

walllessmac下载-快连加速器app

Calendar effects (sometimes less accurately described as ‘seasonal effects’) are cyclical anomalies in returns, where the cycle is based on the calendar. The most important calendar anomalies are the January effect and the weekend effect. The following books include sections on calendar effects: Thaler (1992), Siegel (1998), Lofthouse (2001), Constantinides, Harris and Stulz (2003), Singal (2004) and Taylor (2005). Relevant papers include Lakonishok and Smidt (1988), Hawawini and Keim (1995), Mills and Coutts (1995) and Arsad and Coutts (1997).

Sullivan, Timmermann and White (2001) highlight the dangers of data mining calendar effects and point out that using the same data set to formulate and test hypothese introduces data-mining biases that, if not accounted for, invalidate the assumptions underlying classical statistical inference. They show that the significance of calendar trading rules is much weaker when it is assessed in the context of a universe of rules that could plausibly have been evaluated. They are correct to highlight the dangers of datamining, but don't mention the fact that classical statistical inference is already flawed. A more useful reality check is to remember that a surprising result requires more evidence, Bayesian reasoning makes this clear.
P(hypothesis) = prior belief * strength of evidence
So, for example, it is quite rational to require more evidence for a lunar effect than a tax-loss selling effect.

Many calendar effects have diminished, disappeared altogether or even reversed since they were discovered.

walllessmac下载-快连加速器app

walllessmac下载-快连加速器app

壁虎加速器官方网址,壁虎加速器免费永久加速,壁虎加速器免费试用,壁虎加速器打不开了  极云加速器官网网址,极云加速器pc版下载,极云加速器vnp,极云加速器vpm  速蛙云安卓下载,速蛙云跑路了,速蛙云打不开,速蛙云2024年  云海云最新版,云海云vnp,云海云免费试用,云海云vps  如梭加速器下载地址,如梭加速器ios下载,如梭加速器免费永久加速,如梭加速器打不开  云墙加速器电脑版下载,云墙加速器vnp,云墙加速器免费永久加速,云墙加速器vqn  松果云pc版下载,松果云2024,松果云2024年,松果云不能用了